Pick the right withdrawal strategy for your retirement
The 4% rule is a useful starting point, not a finish line. The Longevity & Drawdown Planner compares fixed-percentage, guardrail, RMD-based, and bond-tent strategies against your specific portfolio, longevity assumptions, and risk tolerance.
What the Longevity & Drawdown does
- Compares 4% rule, Guyton-Klinger guardrails, RMD-based, and bond-tent strategies
- Models longevity using actuarial tables — including how couple longevity differs from single longevity
- Stress-tests each strategy against historical worst-case retirement years (1929, 1966, 2000)
- Shows the trade-off between income stability and bequest size at end of life
- Outputs a recommended strategy plus the rules for adjusting in down markets
A 65-year-old couple has a roughly 50% chance that at least one spouse lives to 92. Planning to a 90 horizon underestimates longevity for half of all couples.
How it works
- Import your portfolio and target spending from the Income Planner.
- Set your longevity assumption — or use the actuarial default based on age, gender, and health.
- Run each strategy and compare income stability, success probability, and final-year bequest.
- Lock in a strategy and document the rules for when to cut back, when to spend up.
Why this matters
Withdrawal strategy is not a math problem with one right answer — it's a trade-off problem. The 4% rule maximizes income stability at the cost of bequest size. RMD-based withdrawals adapt automatically to portfolio performance but produce volatile annual income. Guardrails (Guyton-Klinger) split the difference: spend more when the market is good, cut back when it's bad.
The right strategy depends on whether you'd rather have predictable spending or maximize what you leave to heirs, and how much you'd be willing to cut spending in a 2008-style market. The planner models all four against your situation so the trade-off is concrete instead of theoretical.
This is a planning tool, not personalized financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Is the 4% rule still valid?
It's a reasonable baseline for a 30-year retirement on a 50/50 to 60/40 portfolio. For longer horizons (couples in their early 60s) or lower-return forecasts, recent research suggests 3.3–3.7% is more durable. The planner shows you what's safe for your specific case.
How long should I plan to live?
For singles in average health, plan to age 92–95. For couples, plan for at least one spouse living to 95 — the joint-survival probability stretches longevity meaningfully.
What about variable annuities or bond ladders?
The planner includes both as optional income floors. A bond ladder (or TIPS ladder) covering essential expenses for years 1–10 dramatically improves the success rate of the equity-funded discretionary portion.
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